I won't have the space to run every account of working on the Republican get-out-the-vote effort that is sent my way, but I'm trying to run a wide selection to paint a full portrait of the facts on the ground. Here are a couple more interesting ones from today.

 

Here was a great one from Ohio:

As of last night [our county headquarters] had made 15,000 calls. I know the phone and mail effort, and the sending of the absentee ballots are tightly coordinated…

I worked this effort in '00, '04, and now this year. Last May was the first time I'd ever been called to work for a primary AND in a non-Presidential year. That was amazing…  My commitment is strong, and I sense that in the others. The college kids are especially diligent.

 

This year we have extensive generated list of likely Republican voters, we use a much more sophisticated script and survey, and the responses are tallied by computer.

 

[Note from Jim – remember, this is a get-out-the-vote operation, not a polling operation.]

Each cycle, the system just gets better and better. While I leave a lot of messages on machines, the folks I actually talk to are positive & supportive.

Interesting. A couple of other Ohio TKS readers who e-mailed in concurred with “Ken”, and wondered if “Ken” was the gubernatorial candidate Blackwell being on the fence about supporting DeWine. (It was not.) My sense is that there are a lot of conservatives in Ohio who will show up, vote in the governor’s race, vote in the House races and local races, and then stare long and hard at the box for their choice for Senator. I wonder if DeWine will make a last-minute pitch to these voters.

 

In Florida, John gave me a report on how the actual voting is going so far:

I live in southeastern Martin County, FL.  The eastern half of Martin County is part of C.D. 16 (Foley/Negron).  The less populated western half is part of the 23rd C.D., which is represented by the would-be head of the House Intelligence Committee, Alcee Hastings.

Martin County as a whole leans Rep. (Bush got 57% in Martin County compared to 51% in all of Florida in the 2004 election.)  Current Martin County voter registration:  Rep. = 51%, Dem. = 28%, Ind. or Other = 21%.  I am confident in asserting that SE Martin County is the strongest Republican area in Martin County.  I would not be surprised if Bush received two-thirds or more of the vote in SE Martin County in the last election.

We are now in the third day of two weeks of early voting.  I went to the polling place nearest my home at about 11 this morning.  There were about 5 people in line in front of me.  An election official was saying that they had to get an additional voting machine (raising the total to 5) because the voting had been heavier than expected on Monday and Tuesday.  He also said that during the 2+ days of early voting, there has almost always been a line.  After I completed my voting, there were 15 people in line.

Were these motivated Reps or motivated Dems voting?  Obviously, I don't know how anyone else voted, but if I am right in my assertion that SE Martin County is the strongest Rep. area in Martin County, then it is a fair assumption that most of the votes were cast for Reps.  If these were motivated Reps voting, were they inspired by the GOP GOTV efforts?

I don't know.  I've gotten GOP mailings and recorded calls but I haven't paid any attention to them.  I was self-motivated.  I have never voted early before and sometimes not at all.  But since 9/11, the stakes are too high not to vote. 

This House race is starting to look fascinating. Like many others, I had pretty much chalked up Foley’s seat as an automatic Democratic pickup. But all that the local GOP has to do to keep the seat is ensure that a plurality of the [heavily Republican] district’s voters knows that a vote for Foley is a vote for Negron. (Check out Byron's report.) Yes, they won’t be allowed to have signs in the polling places, but the fact that the polling place rules have been the subject of a furious, high-profile and protracted legal battle, covered by local media helps the message permeate throughout the district’s voters.

 

Barbara in New Jersey says Republican GOTV efforts have been few and far between in her neck of the Garden State.

My sense is that Bush improved his share [of the vote in New Jersey] in 2004 because of proximity to the Towers, not due to GOTV.

Anyway, very few lawn signs (I'm in Morris county, which is one of the Republican strongholds).  A bunch of Menendez signs on the entrance ramps to 495 from the turnpike on the way to the Lincoln Tunnel.  None for Kean there.  Our rep is Freylinghusen who may well be running unopposed.  Next district over is Ferguson (R) v. Stender (D).  I've seen a handful of Stender signs and fewer for Ferguson.

We received our first piece of campaign literature yesterday, for county freeloaders.

No phone calls.

And, even though I volunteered and did work in 2004, no one has bothered to
contact me this year.

I find yard signs to be an interesting measuring stick of enthusiasm, but once the hooligans and moonbats start tearing them down or defacing them, the game stops being fun. I figure a lot of people just don’t want the hassle.

 

One Virginian says the GOP efforts have completely missed him:

My wife and I are both registered Republicans in a swing county (Prince William), and we have not heard from the Allen campaign, the RNC, the RSCC or the state party. I have received more Webb mailings than Allen mailings. No phone calls. Nothing. This isn't going to change my vote. But it makes me wonder about the efficacy of the Virginia GOP GOTV effort.

A very ominous report for Republicans from Minnesota:

Here in a trending Republican area of the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities I was out door-knocking with our local State Representative candidate.  We were using those wonderful targeted lists that show you the voting tendency of every household.  In the past 02 (Wellstone V Coleman) and 04 (Bush v Kerry) the solid Republicans and even the leaning Republicans were pumped up.  They were glad to see you and would talk your ear off at the door and would tell you how excited they were to vote.  This year, we mostly got the polite brush off.  

In 04 I actually had a guy stop and get out of the car and come up to me while I was walking my dog and request a Bush sign.  He had seen me putting them up around the neighborhood the weekend before.  This year, some homes that would normally have a Republican sign politely said no.  I think this will be the worst election for Republicans since I’ve been involved in politics.  I’m guessing somewhere between 92 and 74.

By contrast, the effort in Colorado looks to be hitting its stride:

Although a registered Democrat (we do need a credible loyal opposition if the republic is to stand), I signed up to volunteer in 2004.  Never contacted, but I got a phone call this year.  I’ve also received a robo-call, e-mail followup, and 2 separate phone calls.

 

Bottom line: Bob Beauprez wants to win in CO and is latching onto at least myself to help the effort.

Here’s a report from Harold in Arizona, from the district of the House race that I’m tempted to make my Crazy Nutty Long-shot Mega-Upset Jim What Are You Smoking Pick, founding Minuteman and Republican Randy Graf  vs. Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.

I'm involved in GOTV efforts here in Southern Arizona (Tucson) and the calls I've made to Republicans have been good.  No dissatisfaction at all.  This bodes well for Randy Graf, who is running in the hotly contested AZ-8 against Giffords…  Gabby is ahead, but the ground game may bring the GOP faithful (who outnumber Democrats) to the polls.

Finally, to close on my Regular Upset Pick, the Steele campaign in Maryland is spotlighting these tidbits from the Evans-Novak Political Report:

Republicans depressed with the state of House races should console themselves with warm, happy thoughts about Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R). He is running a ship-shape campaign that is hitting on all cylinders at just the right time.

In key municipalities in heavily black Prince George's County, he is registering unexpectedly high levels of support. His volunteers are finding that all of his databases are up to date, signifying that there will be no last-minute collapse on that level, as there was in 2004 for the Bush-Cheney campaigns in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Steele's ads are good, his polls have him within striking distance and he is making no major mistakes, even as his opponent keeps finding new ways to put his own foot in his mouth.

The biggest surprise is that Steele is entering the final two weeks with twice as much cash as the favorite, Rep. Ben Cardin (D). If this weren't liberal Maryland, Steele would be running away with it. As matters stand, he at least has the momentum on his side.

 

Again, all of this is anecdotal. One gets the feelings that there are probably some states where the GOTV effort is revving like the engine of a Ferrari, and then there are some where they’re going to be less effective than 2004. The question is, does it work where the GOP needs it most?

 

One last thought on local elections from a frustrated New Yorker:

Am I the only guy who finds these campaign ads for insignificant elections to be the funniest things ever? You know, like . . . . "On November 7, vote for real change. Vote for a man who doesn't play politics as usual. Vote for a man who does not molest Congressional pages. Vote against Halliburton and its lapdogs. Vote Mort Henderson for Spotsylvania County Parks Commissioner."

.

Like the one I just saw yesterday for the New York State Assembly spot (93rd District) in Yonkers. In maybe the funniest political ad ever, Democrat Shelly Mayer, running for Assemblywoman, wants us to know her views on . . . IRAQ! Please ignore the fact that your street will not be plowed when it snows, Yonkers citizen. You should be focusing on Fallujah.