So today's poll results in Maryland are one of the reasons I think one of two things:

A) Pollsters are geniuses, have adapted to a rapidly changing behavior on the part of Americans and voters, and are accurately forecasting a widespread and deep Democratic wave that is going to overtake many, many Republicans this Election Day, even one who has run as good a campaign as, say, Michael Steele.

B) Pollsters are not geniuses, they know the behavior of the public and voters is changing and haven't figured out how to adapt; they can't cope with response rates of about 20 percent, cell-phone only voters, cranky respondents who tell them to go to hell, voters who are tired of their phone ringing during election season, and people who say they are certain to vote but who are not, and as a result they are going to be as far off as Zogby was in 2002 and 2004.

I realize it could be A. But you look at the Baltimore Sun's story on its poll, and it says:

Still, Cardin has solidified his backing among African-American voters, a traditionally Democratic constituency that Steele, the state's highest-ranking black official, has vigorously courted.

Cardin just blew off the NAACP debate, and his name was booed. Yet we're supposed to believe he "solidified his backing" among African-Americans? What, they're really impressed with the way he didn't show up?

And does this section smell funny to anyone?

But Cardin is outperforming Steele in Steele's backyard, Prince George's County, an African-American stronghold in which the lieutenant governor is working hard to make inroads. This week, he was endorsed by several black Prince George's Democrats, including former County Executive Wayne K. Curry and five members of the County Council.

Cardin is ahead there, 64 percent to 18 percent. In the September survey, Steele fared better: 32 percent to Cardin's 61 percent.

The good news for Steele in Prince George's is that more voters say they are undecided now than a month ago - 13 percent in the latest poll compared with 3 percent in September.

Steele picks up the highest-profile endorsement in the county, if not the state, and he promptly loses 14 points? I'll give the Sun's pollsters the benefit of the doubt, but you have to ask, what would make them say, "Okay, these numbers just don't look right"?

By the way, the article not-too-subtly suggests that Maryland whites may not actually vote for Steele:

But how white voters answer a phone survey could differ from how they vote when an African- American candidate is on the ballot, Messitte said.

Polls are not always accurate when it comes to attitudes about race, Messitte said. "When they have to actually vote, they vote a different way," he said.

Does anyone believe that an African-American might say in a phone survey that they're voting for the Democrat, but when alone in the booth, might vote for the Republican? Does anyone of either party live in a household where they may not want to indicate their true voting preference aloud to a pollster, because they dread the inevitable argument that will follow with their spouse/parent/child/roommate/whatever?

UPDATE: Having said that, TKS reader Amy offers some illumination:

I have to say that, having attended the non-debate in question, the folks who booed Cardin's non-appearance were not necessarilymembers of the NAACP. They were "Women of Steele" and other campaign workers who had come to welcome his bus, which arrived at the same time as my husband and I. Most of the booers were white, but there were some youngish, nicely-dressed African-Americans who gave Steele a standing ovation at the end. It was a crowd of about 200, and many had Cardin stickers on, as they were eagerly and even forcefully pressed on everyone who came in without a Steele sweatshirt by some pro-Cardin folks. The "debate" between Steele and Zeese, the Libertarian/Green/Populist candidate was not really a debate, as they weren't completely into it since Cardin wasn't there. Steele played to the audience, and seemed pulled to the left by Zeese a bit, but he did know local issues well, and the reception was polite. Still, there was plenty of undercurrent in the audience about "racist" ads about Harold Ford and other current reasons to oppose any Republicans.