So Dick Morris is analyzing the political scene with his trademarked caution and understatement, declaring Hillary Clinton “seems to be showing her age rather than grasping just how much the political world has changed since she last trod the presidential campaign trail.” 

Hillary appears to have been completely taken by surprise by the boomlet for Obama. He's now tied with her in New Hampshire and ahead of her in Iowa. The Obama phenomenon quickly knocked her out of her complacency. Suddenly, just days after the New York Senate election, she began to frantically invite prominent Democratic Party types from Iowa and New Hampshire to her home for dinner to discuss her 'potential' presidential race. Using her BlackBerry — or more likely the old Clinton Rolodex, — she contacted the party hacks from 10 years ago…the people who supported Bill back then. It's been a long time since she last visited New Hampshire, and she hasn't kept up with the changes in the Party. She's relying on the outdated Clinton contacts, even ignoring the first female Speaker of the House, who was also the first Democrat elected Speaker in 70 years. That's someone to pay attention to.

Really? [And Pelosi is the first Democrat elected Speaker in 70 years? Not 12?*]

Yes, Obama is going to be a very strong candidate. And yes, when everyone is throwing roses at his feet, then he’s going to look unstoppable. But he has yet to get a word of critical press. He was completely untested in his Senate campaign. And the pressures of running for local office just don’t compare to the pressures of running a presidential campaign.

By comparison, let’s look at Hillary’s sense of connection with the average Democratic party official, activist, or primary voter. From about 1992 on, if you were a Democrat, you spent time defending Hillary Clinton. From about 1994 until Gore started running in earnest, the Clintons were the Democratic Party.

And we’re supposed to believe that Obama or Edwards has assembled a power base or network of supporters that could go toe-to-toe with the Clintons? We’re supposed to believe that Pelosi, Reid, Dean, or some other Democrat has established an independent faction that will cause Hillary problems if they don’t get on board?

Color me skeptical. It’s not that Hillary’s a lock for the nomination, but she’s the frontrunner, and she brings resources to the table that no other Democrat will. 

Morris also seems to think the fact that Hillary is talking to James Carville and Paul Begala is a sign she’s still running 1992 software in a 2008 world:

The top echelon of Hillary's brain trust is the same old White House gang that advised them many years ago. As part of her offense after the election, Hillary even had a highly publicized dinner with former advisers James Carville and Paul Begala (wonder how the press ever learned of that rendezvous). Their last presidential campaign was Bill Clinton's 1992 race 14 years ago — hardly the place to go for cutting edge political advice. Even the Clintons declined to hire that undynamic duo for the 1996 race or for either of Hillary's Senate races. Gore ignored them in 2000 and Kerry refused to hire them in 2004. Hillary won't hire them either, but she still looks backward. Maybe the nostalgia is comforting to her.

Putting aside any lingering rivalries between Morris and Carville and Begala dating back to the Clinton years, are the Crossfire men really that outdated? I know Carville hasn’t worked on domestic campaigns since 1992 (other than some last-minute advice to the Kerry campaign), but Carville has advised Tony Blair since then, and I don’t think one can say that either adviser has been away from the political scene.

Who else is out there? Kerry’s crew? Joe Trippi? Edwards has Dave “Mudcat” Sanders; I don’t know if his combative writing partner, Steve Jarding, whose ferocious tactics for Jim Webb must be considered effective, is affiliated with any candidate. Were there any other Democratic campaign managers or strategists who stood out as innovative geniuses in 2006? Didn’t most Democratic candidates have a strong wind at their back? 

Morris’ assessment of Hillary has been shaky in the past – in 1999 he said she would never run for Senate, and thought Rick Lazio would beat her in 2000 – and it seems like this is the first of many columns we will see sensing that Hillary’s chances are dwindling.

It’s going to be a looooong campaign. Hillary will stumble. And then she will come back. And then she will stumble again. And then she will come back again. And then, in the second month of the campaign…

UPDATE : TKS reader Mike helpfully points out that there is a new female Speaker of the New Hampshire House, the first elected Democratic Speaker in New Hampshire in 70 years. Would have helped for Morris to be a bit more specific.