At least one well-connected Republican  — not Obi Wan — seems very confident about Allen finishing on top in Virginia. I see it as very very close.

They don't buy the CNN and ABC call on Cardin. The early numbers have Steele up, and they have a lot of absentees that won't get counted for a while. That's based entirely on exit polls, which are wrong.

Northup looks like a loss, and that might be a sign of a bad night.

I'm told that Michael Barone — the guy who was the first to say the exit polls were bad in 2004 —just said the exit polls gave the Democrats 6 to 8 points this year. Puts a lot of those Senate races into the neck-and-neck category.

The CNN call on Rhode Island is based on exit polls. Ignore the call, watch the actual numbers coming in tonight.

 That's not to say Whitehouse won't win; just that it's likely to be close and they ought not rely on exit polls.

UPDATE: Florida 13, Kathrine Harris' old seat, has been called for Buchanan, the Republican, by Fox. That's one I had on my "good chance the GOP loses" pile, so the GOP is breathing a little easier.

There's some worry that Foley/Negron-Mahoney is going to be really, really close, and might end up falling just short.