For what it is worth - and it's probably not much - Mickey Kaus predicts that Hillary Clinton will not run for president. (Video on BloggingHeads.)

"I'd say it's a 50-50 proposition," he says. "I'll get a full credit if it's right and no one will remember, except you [Robert Wright] if it's wrong."

I seem to recall this rumor running through Iowa a few weeks back, and Hillary's people very quickly quashed it. Needless to say, if she chooses not to run, then many, many people will be stunned, including me.