So shortly after the Connecticut primary, I ran the numbers, guess-timating how many votes Ned Lamont, Joe Lieberman, and Schlesinger would get among Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, and concluded Lamont’s doomed.
There have been some polls showing a closer race, with Lieberman up only a few points. But AJStrata has looked closely at those polls, and is finding a similar situation to my earlier assessment – Lamont’s got a tough, tough road ahead. He has to drive down Lieberman’s support among Democrats a lot more, pick up a lot of Independents, and hope that Connecticut Republicans change their minds about preferring Lieberman and “come home” to Schlesinger. Possible, but not likely.
A reader who wrote in to Mickey Kaus predicted Lamont might get 75 percent of the Democratic vote, a figure that strikes me as awfully high after a 51.79 percent to 48.21 percent victory in the primary. Still, the ARG poll shows Lamont getting 65 percent of Democrats.
Strata points to the key fact in that ARG poll that showed theoretically a closer race, which is that Lieberman was still solidly beating Lamont among independents, 48 percent to 38 percent, and winning Republicans big,
57 percent to 18 percent for Schlesinger.
Remember the breakdown of all Connecticut voters is 33.4 percent Democrats, 21.9 percent Republicans, 44.4 percent unaffiliated. It’s possible that the Democrats will turn out in numbers disproportional enough to give Lamont the victory, but I’m skeptical. The race is getting tons of attention, and Lieberman is clearly making his pitch to independents and Republicans. Similarly, when the first thought most people associate with Schlesinger is “gambling,” and poll after poll has the GOP candidate not just in single figures, but the low single figures, a comeback seems really unlikely.
Lamont can’t concede Lieberman half the independents and a majority of Republicans and expect to get a majority. Until those figures change significantly, the incumbent senator appears to be in the driver’s seat.
