Obi Wan Kenobi, Thursday:

Generic numbers have been volatile all year; will we see any shift to Republicans this weekend? If we do, Obi thinks it could be significant. He sees an interesting glimmer in the Wall Street Journal’s pollsters noting that Americans are starting to give credit to Bush for good economic growth.

The ABC Washington Post poll generic ballot question, two weeks ago:

                Dem      Rep      Other     Neither     Will not      No
                cand.    cand.    (vol.)    (vol.)     vote (vol.)   opin.

10/22/06 LV      55       41        0          1           *           3         
10/22/06 RV      54       41        *          1           *           3

The ABC Washington Post poll, today:

                Dem      Rep      Other     Neither     Will not      No
                cand.    cand.    (vol.)    (vol.)     vote (vol.)   opin.
11/4/06  LV      51       45        1          1           *           2    
11/4/06  RV      53       43        1          1           *           3

Are you kidding me? From 14 points to 6 points in two weeks among likely voters?

Now, I know the Newsweek generic ballot is at its worst:

In the Nov. 2-3 Newsweek poll, 53 percent of respondents said they would most like to see the Democrats win control of Congress, compared with 32 percent who wanted to see Republicans maintain control. The Oct. 26-27 poll showed that 50 percent of Americans said they'd like to see Democrats take control and 35 percent said Republicans should retain the majority. 

The latest Newsweek poll was taken Nov. 2-3 (which would have been prime Kerry statment fallout). There was a three point shift away from Republicans at the one moment they won the news cycle? It's possible, I guess, but it strikes me as odd.

Oh, by the way, the Post was kind enough to give us a bit of history on their generic ballot preference question:

                Dem      Rep      Other     Neither     Will not      No
                cand.    cand.    (vol.)    (vol.)     vote (vol.)   opin.

11/6/94  RV      47       42                   5           2           5
10/31/94 RV      48       44                   4           1           3

Yes, on November 6, 1994, among registered voters, ABC News/Washington Post had the Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 42. So we know just how valuable an indicator it is.

Still, an eight point shift to me says, at the very least, that it was never a 14 point advantage. (Or if it was, it was very soft.) And I think the phenomenon I'm describing - Republicans "coming home," voters actually paying closer attention in these final days, maybe having second thoughts and doubts about the Democrats, maybe just offended by Kerry, or liking the fired-up Bush they're seeing on the campaign trail - is happening. The question is, how much? And will this effect occur in certain parts of the country, certain states and districts, and not others? And will that effect occur as intensely where the GOP needs it most?

There's reason for some optimism - I want to check out a theory and some numbers I recently heard about which voters are left undecided and persuadable - but for now, it's still not quite clear if it will be enough to stave off Republican disappointment.