Obi Wan appears.
He wonders if Chuck Schumer has run his entire Senate strategy based on his resentments, instead of what the voters really want to hear. Obi notes Schumer has run a ton of ads tying Michael Steele to President Bush and the Iraq war – images, the media assures us, are toxic in this election atmosphere. And yet Steele’s still in this race, with all the momentum. In fact, Bob Ehrlich is even closer in the governor’s race, and Democrats were tying him to Bush all year long, never mind that Ehrlich is a governor and doesn’t interact with Bush terribly frequently.
“Schumer should have done voter research,” Obi says. “Campaign on their resentments, not yours.”
Then he wonders what the polls have been measuring. Is it people’s moods? Their reaction to what is on the television at any given moment? Do numbers from a week ago, two weeks ago, or a month really represent who they will vote for on Tuesday?
“Most voters aren’t like you and me, Jim,” he notes. “They don’t follow all of this starting from the spring.”
Bush’s disapproval number likely includes disgruntled conservatives, who would vote for him again if given the choice of him or Kerry again. When voters go into a booth, and face a choice, rather than a referendum on Bush, will they think differently?
“Everybody looks at the Senate poll numbers like they’re written in stone,” he notes. “Yet all of this money tying them to Bush and an allegedly unpopular war didn’t knock ‘em out.”
If it's a wave year, with Democrats winning big, why is Corker up, Steele in it, Burns coming back, and Talent still neck and neck, no matter what gets thrown at them? Shouldn’t they all be losing badly?
He is watching the generic ballot numbers for movement, but not actual leads for Republicans. He also wonders, do we see the oddity of good numbers for the GOP in Maryland occur anywhere else, and if so, when? Saturday? Sunday? A poll that puts DeWine or Santorum in better shape than we’ve seen in a while?
He also notes something I had been meaning to spotlight – sometime in the past week, the President George W. Bush who knows how to campaign came back. Remember that guy? Fed off the crowd, was funny, could improvise?
On the campaign trail in red states and districts, we’re seeing that guy again, as anyone who heard this exchange knows.
THE PRESIDENT: In all these vital measures for fighting a war on terror, the Democrats in Washington follow a simple philosophy: Just say no. (Laughter.) When it comes to listening in on the terrorists, what's the Democrats' answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
THE PRESIDENT: Just say no. When it comes to detaining terrorists, what's the Democrat's answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
THE PRESIDENT: When it comes to questioning terrorists, what's the Democrat's answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
THE PRESIDENT: When it comes to trying terrorists, what's the Democrat's answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no!
THE PRESIDENT: And so when the Democrats ask for your vote on November 7th, what's your answer?
AUDIENCE: Just say no! (Applause.)
“Too bad the Kerry comment is short-lived,” I said.
“I’m not sure it was short lived, Jim,” Obi responded.
He notes that now everybody seen it on front page; it’s getting penetration. He noticed Hugh Hewitt’s crusade to get the picture of the soldiers in Iraq with the banner in the mainstream media; although it’s probably now been featured on Drudge and every blog. It’s the sort of thing friends e-mail to each other because it’s funny.
Obi Wan concludes by asking four things:
Is this a late breaking election? That’s something Washington experts don’t think about. They come to their conclusions early, and presume the rest of the country is like them.
The Senate numbers are showing that pulling a Michael Moore-style attack on Bush may not have been productive in Maryland; will we see it elsewhere now, as people start making up their minds?
Generic numbers have been volatile all year; will we see any shift to Republicans this weekend? If we do, Obi thinks it could be significant. He sees an interesting glimmer in the Wall Street Journal’s pollsters noting that Americans are starting to give credit to Bush for good economic growth.
Has the national dialogue become Bush against Kerry? If so, it could tap into what the country doesn’t like about Democrats – elitism, arrogance, blaming America first, and a media that ignores news that is inconvenient for the party they prefer.
We will see.
