Hm. Yesterday, we saw an article about the upcoming elections that was still talking about “high fuel prices” when gas prices have plummeted in the last month. With Bush’s approval rating inching up to 44, I wonder how many more articles we will see that state offhand, “with President Bush’s approval rating mired in the 30s…”
I decided to dig up a whole bunch of interesting bits of data that do not fit the preferred 2006 narrative of, "Republicans are doomed, Democrats are fired up, this year will be a blowout."
For starters:
Percentage of Republican Base Voters who say they are “almost certain” to vote this November: 81 percent
Percentage of Republican Base Voters who say they are “very likely” to vote this November: 14 percent
Last cycle that 95 percent of Republicans were “very likely” or “almost certain” to vote: 2004
Haven't heard that discussed much in campaign coverage, have you? Now, some
more recent news:
Amount the Republican National Committee spending over the next seven weeks on advertising and get out the vote efforts: $60 million
Amount the DNC is spending over the next seven weeks on get-out-the-vote efforts: $12 million
Amount the DNC is spending over the next seven weeks on advertising: $0
Average DNC spending per race in the 40 most competitive congressional races: $60,000.
In addition:
Amount the Republican Governor's Association has raised for its campaigns: $25.9 million
Amount the Democratic Governor's Association has raised for its campaigns: $17.9 million
The DNC would tell you that those figures don't include funds they have transferred to the state parties in recent months, part of Howard Dean's "50 State Plan." And the Democratic Senate and House party committees have been much closer to their GOP counterparts, surpassing them at times during this cycle. But having said that, a 5-to-1 advantage at the national committee level is a strong wind at your back.
Finally, from one of my favorite election watchers:
Current Projection of Congressional Quarterly in the House:
Republican safe, favorable, leans: 220
Democratic safe, favorable leans: 203
No Clear Favorite: 12
Current Projection of Congressional Quarterly in the Senate:
Republican safe, favorable, leans: 51 (not including Chafee)
Democratic safe, favorable, leans: 44 (including Lieberman)
No Clear Favorite: 5, including Rhode Island, New Jersey and Minnesota. Lieberman is counted as a Democrat, and is “favored” for victory.
Does this mean Republicans will have a good 2006? Nothing is guaranteed. But it is… interesting.
UPDATE: Meanwhile, Marshall's efforts to build an unstoppable job-creation and sales machine with everyday low prices, everyday proceed apace, turning into an unstoppable voter-registration and political action force...
Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest employer, is planning to launch a voter registration and education campaign this fall targeted at its 1.3 million employees in an effort to combat growing criticism from Democrats and labor unions.
ANOTHER UPDATE: A TKS reader mails in a Roll Call article that begins:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Monday added seven candidates to its “Red to Blue” fundraising program and announced that the winner of Saturday’s Democratic primary in Hawaii’s 2nd district would be included on the program’s candidate list.
Huh? The current occupant of Hawaii's 2nd District is Ed Case, a Democrat who's running for Senate. How does keeping a blue seat blue count as a part of the "Red to Blue" program?
YET ANOTHER UPDATE: Looking at the latest batch of polls, a mixed bag for the GOP.
Best news for Republicans comes in California. Ah-nuld, 53.6 percent, Phil Angelides 31.4 percent. Hasta la vista, baby.
For those who care - I don't - Brown University has Lincoln Chafee one point behind Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse. The Republican is winning pretty handily in the Rhode Island governor's race.
A Democratic firm's poll in Florida has Katherine Harris down by nine, a number that simply does not compute, considering how she's been down big for a long time. Maybe this usually close state is tightening a bit? Republican Crist looks to be cruising to the governor's mansion, maybe he's carrying her a bit?
In Texas, incumbent Republican Rick Perry should win the four-way race pretty handily.
Probably the worst news for Republicans is in Ohio, where Ken Blackwell - who appeared to have all the tools to be a first rate candidate - just can't seem to make up ground against Ted Strickland. My guess is that the results on Election Day will be nowhere near the 21 point lead the latest Quinnipiac poll is showing, but Blackwell clearly has a steep uphill climb.
The Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut is surprising, putting Lieberman up only by two over Lamont. The 45 percent that the Q-folks found for Lieberman would be among the lowest totals found for Joe-mentum so far; the 43 for Ned-renaline is among his highest. Depending on which pollster you listen to, this is either a 2 point race or a 16 point race. Somebody's sampling seems to be a little off.
